Future Thinking: what is it, and how does it help us understand the present to transform the future

By Karen Zeolla and Johanna Heinberg, Laboratorio Futuro Argentina

Translated by Renata Zimbarg, reviewed by Kim Truong

Future Thinking is the kind of thinking we need to develop to provide creative and innovative responses to the challenges we face personally, institutionally and globally.   

The Age of Disruption

We live in a world where the future is forged parallel to the present. It is no longer about a future that is far away, and that will come at some point; we are building it with our daily actions, whether we are aware of it or not. How do we make the present and future coexist in the same space-time, then? Exploring the future becomes essential to face the challenges that lie ahead.

It is important to understand that the changes happening are not linear, but exponential. Breakthrough changes! How do we assimilate this? How do we process such disruption? Are our brains prepared to process these changes so quickly? What about the change timing in our organisations?

This timing is so relevant that the decisions we make today and the paths we choose will lead to the configuration of a future or another. We are witnessing such a deep and fast change, that knowing this game between future-present and present-future makes us absolutely protagonists and decision-makers in constructing our future and our organisations.  

Therefore, it is not about "looking at the crystal ball" or "guessing" what will happen in the future, or staying still because the future will simply happen; but about the exercise of imagining alternative futures to generate actions in the present that allow us to prevent undesirable futures, such as a climate catastrophe, for instance. 

In 2019, inspired by the question “What human species do we want to be?”, the Future Congress - the most important event about the future in Latin America that has been held for more than 10 years in Chile - opened the event with Guido Gerardi’s speech:

 

“Humanity lives its maximum splendour of development. A century ago, perhaps less, not even the most creative science fiction writers would have thought that what they imagined was real today: colonising the universe, prolonging life, eradicating death, modifying our genes, creating artificial intelligence, and many other ancient utopias are already glimpsed in everyday life. 

The certainties and convictions of yesterday are not enough to understand today's world. We are illiterate in the face of the ecological catastrophe and the productive disruption we are experiencing. 

Everyone must contribute with reflections, develop new thinking and export innovations because our challenges are experienced in every corner of the planet. All citizens of the world - not just universities, media or public institutions - face the risk of obsolescence. 

Our biggest challenge is to build better humanity from this technological disruption. For this, it is necessary to democratise the future; that we all understand the changes we are experiencing and their consequences; that scientific and technological development walk side by side with philosophy, art, and a deep ethical vision. 

Like never before, a generation has the destiny of humanity in its hands and reflection is required to generate new thinking that will help us find the best answers and changes to the challenges we face.” (Girardi, 2019)

When it comes to developing "new thinking", "democratising the future", and generating "innovation", Future Thinking is, in our opinion, the answer. It is the thinking we need to develop to provide creative and innovative responses to the challenges we face personally, institutionally and globally.   

Now, if we reflect on what happens to us when we think about the future, two things can generally happen: the first is a feeling of uncertainty about what might or might not happen; the second is the appearance of a strong drive for change and transformation, in the face of an undesired current state of affairs. Whether for one case or the other, the good news is that there are methods, techniques, and tools built from Futures Studies and Prospective, along with other converging knowledge, that allow us to explore, get to know and create the time-to-come in different ways.

For this reason, at Laboratorio Futuro Argentina, we work to adapt many of these tools so that they are easy to apply and useful for solving challenges. We want to connect people and organisations that wish to develop a solid future vision, from an ethical, sustainable and inclusive approach.

What is Future Thinking?

Human beings have always been interested in reflecting on the future, as it is part of a deep longing: the need to give meaning to their existence. Firstly, the future is a mental category given by the dimension of time, and not a materialised reality. The Latin root of the word ‘future’ means "something that doesn’t exist yet and is nowhere". How can we get to know the future, then? The future does not exist as such. Its awareness is inherent in the realm of conjecture and imagination: we cannot experience it directly, but only through images, thoughts, feelings and the many ways these are, subsequently, expressed in the outside world. 

In this regard, one of the greatest futurists in the world, Jim Dator, states certain principles to think about the future. The first states that “the future cannot be predicted because it does not exist”. This invites us to reflect on the future as a construction process, and not destiny or something already decreed and, therefore, inevitable, determined. In this sense, and as Mojica (2010: 9) maintains, the future is not unique, linear and probable, but rather multiple and uncertain.

From this perspective, entering the field of knowledge and exploring the future implies understanding its plural nature, for which a new way of thinking about the future is necessary. Thus, Future Thinking is presented as a multi-inter- and transdisciplinary approach, in which disciplines, thoughts and methodologies converge, allowing the exploration of alternatives for the future.

The following image shows the confluence of disciplines and fields of knowledge as an approach that nourishes Future Thinking.

Future Thinking Map by Future Laboratory

This map is a reworking of Laboratorio Futuro Argentina, based on the chart built by Elliott P. Montgomery that you can see here. It seeks to represent what we consider Future Thinking to be today. The size of the bubbles reflects the weight and influence that each one has within Future Thinking.


Therefore, the nucleus of Future Thinking is the Future Studies, with the voluntaristic, deterministic, foresight, human and social foresight currents of Eleonora Massini; and the critical current of Sohail Inayatullah's metafutures; expanding to theories and disciplines such as Otto Scharmer's U-Theory, neuroscience, and complex thinking; and reaching areas related to speculative design, fictional design, science fiction and exponential thinking as essential elements when thinking about futures alternatives.

Practical applications of Future Thinking 

Future Thinking can be applied in different areas or topics, such as health, education, work, food, etc., and in different territories and organisations. It can detect the implications and challenges addressed from the present, to build the best possible future for us, our organisations, and the world.

Based on a mosaic of methodologies, techniques and tools, Future Thinking explores future alternatives or possible futures. It seeks to understand the factors of change in a society or organisation and the visions of the desired future, to build a bridge between that future project and the present. 

 

Thus, with Future Thinking, strategic planning evolves into strategic thinking, where organisations are strengthened from a continuous learning process to generate plans in dynamic, uncertain and contingent contexts. 

Additionally, Arie De Geus (1988) states that the purpose of planning is not to predict or make plans, but to increase the understanding capacity of an organisation regarding its environment. Therefore, planning is actually learning, and learning means increasing the capacity for reflection and rethinking mental models through which strategic decisions are made.

Thus, the purpose of thinking differently is to act differently. This increases people’s capacity to build futures and generate quality inputs for decision-making. Using different perspectives and connecting knowledge from various disciplines allows a holistic and innovative vision of reality and possible futures. 

In other words, Future Thinking helps us understand the present because: 

  1. Today's societies do not have the answers to the challenges we face. We are trying to solve future problems with tools of the past. 

  2. The emerging world requires new ways of thinking and new leadership skills to face challenges more strategically and with greater awareness.

  3. To transform our organisations, it is necessary to develop a new type of thinking that understands the dynamics of the emerging world - i.e. thinking with a future mindset.

  4. Traditional knowledge is no longer enough; we must resort to other disciplines and thinking processes, including Neuroscience, Social Studies, Economics, Physics, and others. 

  5. Future Thinking is an emerging discipline. There is no doubt that the only constant is ‘change’, and we must be prepared and open to new ways of working towards global challenges.

Bibliographic references:

  • Girardi Lavin, G. (2019). Future Congress 2019. Chile.

  • De Geus, Arie (1988), “Planning as learning”, Harvard Business Review, Vol. 66, No. 2.

  • Mojica, F.J. (2010). Introduction to Strategic Foresight for business competitiveness . University extership of Colombia.  Strategic and Prospective Thinking  Center .

  • Mojica, JF (2010). Introduction to Strategic Foresight. Bogotá: University -Externado de Colombia - Faculty of Business Administration Center for Strategic Thinking and Foresight.

  • Inayatullah, S. Study of the Future theories and methodologies – BBVA-OpenMind

  • Medina Vasquez, J. and Ortegon, E. (2006). Foresight and Strategic Decision Manual: theoretical bases and instruments for Latin America and the Caribbean. ECLAC.

  • Slaughter, R. & Hines, A (2020). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 2020. Association of Professional Futurists and Foresight International. 

  • UK Government. The Government Office for Science. (November, 2017). Tools for Futures Thinking and Foresight Across UK Government. Ed. 1.0. Waverley Consultants

  • WBCSDs: Vision 2050. Futures Thinking: a guide to using futures thinking to help drive corporate resilience and transformational innovation.

Karen Zeolla

Karen Zeolla is the Founder of Laboratorio Futuro Argentina and a futurist. She has a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and has training in agility, design thinking, digital transformation, and sustainable business design. She held executive positions in the Government of the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina, and worked on the design of development policies, social innovation and urban development. Furthermore, she was the coordinator of the Commission of the Future in the Argentinian Senate. Currently, she co-directs the Professional Certification in Future Thinking at the School of Innovation from the Buenos Aires Institute of Technology’s School of Innovation and is 100% devoted to promoting transformation in organisations and people through Future Thinking.

Johanna Heinberg

Johanna Heinberg is the Co-Founder of Laboratorio Futuro Argentina. She has extensive experience in the private sector, having held the position of Product Director of one of Argentina's most important Media Groups. Currently, she is a Professor of the Professional Certification in Future Thinking at the Buenos Aires Institute of Technology and collaborates with companies and organisations to work on the design and construction of a prospective vision.